Two countries on the "Early Election" agenda: UK and France

Hello from Brussels Crow!We continue to bring you the headlines from Brussels, the capital of Europe. The most talked-about topics this week are the French Elections, which began on June 29th following France's decision to call for early elections, and the early UK Elections set to take place on July 4th. With the rise of the far-right in Europe becoming an increasingly significant issue, we will explore the election process in this report and examine the potential outcomes.

UK Elections on July 4, 2024

In 2019, the Conservative Party, led by Boris Johnson, won a decisive victory in the general elections, securing 365 seats in the House of Commons. Meanwhile, the Labour Party, under Jeremy Corbyn, suffered a heavy defeat with 203 seats, as the elections were primarily centered around Brexit, with Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" slogan garnering widespread support. Initially, the next election was expected to take place in the fall of 2024. However, in May, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visited Buckingham Palace to request King Charles III to dissolve Parliament, thereby initiating the current election process.

To provide some background on the UK's election process: the last elections were held in December 2019, with elections typically occurring every five years. The United Kingdom is divided into 650 constituencies, each of which elects a Member of Parliament (MP) to the House of Commons. The leader of the party with the most MPs becomes the Prime Minister and is tasked by the King to form the government. While most candidates represent specific political parties, some run as independents.

In the last elections, similar to the rising right-wing parties in Europe, the Conservative Party secured a majority in the House of Commons with a margin of over 80 seats. Legally, the next election was required by January 2025. However, an unexpected event occurred when Prime Minister Sunak announced the decision to go to the polls on July 4. This announcement has launched a six-week campaign that could potentially end the Conservatives' 14-year rule.

What factors have led to this early election? The primary reason seems to be the rapid deterioration of the economic situation since the last elections. The poor economic performance under the Conservative government led to Sunak's surprising decision for early elections. According to polls, the Conservative Party trails significantly behind the opposition Labour Party. The latest poll by the Financial Times shows Labour at 44.3%, the Conservatives at 23.2%, the Reform Party at 11.5%, the Liberal Democrats at 9.4%, and the Greens at 6.2%. Analysts suggest that economic issues were a significant factor in Sunak's decision, as declining hopes for economic recovery and increasing public pressure likely influenced the move. The Conservative government had aimed for economic growth above 1% in 2024, but with growth at only 0.6% in the first quarter, expectations have dwindled.

Since 2021, the Conservative Party has seen declining public support, with high inflation rates driven by rising energy and food prices. Although the government implemented various measures to mitigate living costs and stimulate economic growth, the public found these efforts insufficient, causing the gap between the opposition Labour Party and the current government to close rapidly according to polls. Currently, Labour appears to have a significant lead in the race. BBC political editor Chris Mason notes that some party members fear the situation might worsen, suggesting that delaying the election could exacerbate the Conservatives' potential defeat. Mason also highlights that Sunak has at least achieved or is on the path to achieving some of his goals. He mentions that the recent decline in inflation could be seen as a government success, contributing to a slightly more optimistic broader economic outlook.

On the opposition front, Labour is not the only significant player. The anti-immigrant, far-right Reform Party ranks third in the polls. Given its evenly distributed national support, it remains unclear how many seats the party might secure in Parliament. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats, who held third place in previous years and co-formed a coalition government with the Conservatives between 2010 and 2015, continue to maintain around 10% support.

Immigration is another major issue in the upcoming UK elections. According to a 2023 Ipsos MORI Poll, 60% of the British public believes the number of immigrants is too high, and 45% think this has negative impacts on the country. Concerns include economic burdens and reduced job opportunities. Public sentiment on immigration directly influences the current early election. During his tenure, Prime Minister Sunak prioritized the controversial plan to send some asylum seekers entering the UK illegally to Rwanda, hoping it would deter people from crossing the Channel in small boats. However, Sunak announced that this "Rwanda Program" would only be implemented if he is re-elected. In contrast, Labour has vowed to scrap the plan if they win. The stark disagreement over this costly plan, amounting to £240 million, could be a decisive factor in the election. The outcome will soon reveal which side the public supports. After the election, King Charles III will ask the leader of the party with the most MPs to form the government, while the second-largest party's leader will become the opposition leader. If no party secures an absolute majority, the leading party will have the right to form a coalition or minority government.

French Elections: June 30 - July 7, 2024

Following significant losses by President Emmanuel Macron's ruling coalition in the 2024 European Parliament elections, France also decided to hold early elections. The far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) achieved substantial success, while Macron's party, L'Europe Ensemble, lost many seats, prompting Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and call for early elections.

The primary aim of this election is to resolve existing political uncertainty and discord between the parliament and the government. Macron has emphasized in his statements that the rise of the far-right is unacceptable and expressed his desire to give the French people a chance to "determine their own destiny." Preliminary results from the first round of elections, completed on June 30, show the National Rally (RN) leading with 33.15% of the vote, followed by the New People's Front (NFP) with 28.14%, Macron's party Ensemble with 21.27%, and other right-wing parties with 10.22%.

These initial results have sparked significant public reaction, with many French citizens taking to the streets to voice their concerns. For the first time in French history, a far-right party has taken the lead, causing considerable anxiety among a segment of the population. According to Euro News, left-wing voters, particularly those from the NPF alliance, expressed disappointment and concern during a protest in Paris against the National Rally's (RN) success. Despite the setback, some NPF supporters remain hopeful.

In response to the far-right's success, centrist and left-wing parties have signaled potential cooperation for the second round. President Macron, after the results were announced, stated that the high voter turnout indicated a desire to "clarify the political situation." Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left France Unbowed (LFI), described the results as a "severe and undeniable defeat" for Macron. Many French media outlets have suggested that Macron's decision to call early elections might have sealed his political fate. Challenges magazine's article "2024 general elections: The end of King Macron's reign" suggests that by dissolving the Assembly, Macron triggered his downfall.

The National Rally, led by Jordan Bardella, continues to dominate headlines with its promises. If they secure a majority in the National Assembly, Bardella will become Prime Minister, heralding a new era of shared leadership between Bardella and Macron. The RN's stance on immigration, emphasizing a significant reduction in immigration flows, contrasts sharply with Macron's policies. This shift has already created fear among minority communities. According to a Politico survey, people in immigrant-dense areas like Saint-Denis fear that life could become even more challenging under a far-right government. The heightened anti-immigrant rhetoric from leaders like Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella exacerbates these concerns. If the RN gains strength, more stringent policies toward immigrants and minorities are anticipated. The response of immigrant groups to these developments will become clearer in the coming days.

The French elections, concluding on July 7, are set to keep France and Europe on edge with their implications for the political landscape and far-right influence.