European Poll: Will Europeans be Hesitant Again in the Upcoming Election?

European Poll: Will Europeans Be Hesitant Again in the Upcoming Election?

As election day rapidly approaches, European citizens appear more motivated to go to the polls this year compared to previous years. According to a sample survey conducted by pollingEurope among 5,000 European voters over the age of 18, a higher turnout is expected for the elections taking place from June 6-9, 2024, compared to 2019. The main reasons for this increase include rising political awareness and consciousness. Particularly among the younger generation, the rise in political awareness and activism is triggering a broader societal mobilization.

Why are European voters more eager to vote this year? A look back at history reveals a fluctuating trend since the European Parliament elections began in 1979. While the first elections saw a 61.99% turnout, this number significantly dropped to 50.66% in 2019. Voters had distanced themselves from expressing opinions on existing situations and had taken a spectator role regarding events in Europe. However, will the perspective of the "Gen Z" generation, familiar to us by name, make a significant difference in this year's election?

The reason for expecting such a dynamic change from young voters lies in their heightened awareness and concern about issues such as environmental problems, climate change, and digital rights, thanks to increased digital coverage compared to past societies. Witnessing the leadership of activists like Greta Thunberg, Malala Yousafzai, Boyan Slat, and Leymah Gbowee on widespread social media has led to new expectations from the public about the younger generation. Social media use, often criticized for its negative aspects, is now being credited for bringing many of today's pressing issues to the forefront due to the young generation's awareness.

Platforms like Twitter, with their undeniable impact on collective actions, have facilitated the rapid spread of not just opinions but also visual content, drawing public attention faster than traditional media. According to research published by Global Citizen, the most frequently used hashtag on European Twitter in 2023 was "#Ukraine", highlighting war-related issues, followed by "#Metoo", emphasizing gender equality. These popular hashtags amplify reactions to current issues, enabling users to express their desire for action more sincerely and easily to a large audience. As election day nears, the sharing of opinions about the elections is increasing. According to ExcepSocialCore, the most commonly used hashtags in European media these days are #EUelections2024, #FutureOfEurope, and #EuropeDecides. Users are not only sharing opinions but also reminding the public of past events during election periods, influencing collective preferences.

What are the main concerns for voters in these topics?

Contrary to popular belief, rising inflation rates are no longer a concern only for third-world countries. On May 14, during the Press Club event in Brussels before the election period, pollingEurope was featured. Established by France and Italy's leading market and social research firms, OpinionWay and SWG S.p.A, this new research company shared the survey results regarding the elections with journalists. According to these surveys, voters are most concerned about the rising inflation rates across Europe, with 43% of respondents highlighting inflation as their primary concern. This could significantly benefit parties promising to focus on this issue, although the extent to which voters trust these promises remains uncertain until election day. Another concern is the fear of war, with 25% of the public worried, particularly about the Israel-Palestine conflict. War, once considered a distant possibility for Europe, is now viewed differently due to the influence of popular social media channels. Visual content and firsthand accounts from conflict zones have heightened public anxiety. The party that can provide the most reassurance regarding war might gain a significant advantage.

Additionally, recent signals suggest that rising far-right parties, a serious threat that the Dutch recently experienced, might gain support in response to these concerns. With a 22% rating, this threat raises several questions among the public. European countries, shaped by freedom and human rights, worry about facing restrictions within their own countries while trying to protect themselves from external threats.

Compared to the homogenous structure of 20 years ago, the cosmopolitan and heterogeneous nature of European countries today has left citizens from different backgrounds worried about facing racism. Various studies and reports in recent years support these concerns. For instance, a report by the European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA) indicates that black individuals in Europe increasingly face racism. The report states that black individuals routinely experience discrimination and microaggressions, are systematically excluded from the job market and housing sector, face police violence, and encounter discrimination in schools and healthcare services. Another study in Germany emphasizes that racism threatens democracy. According to a survey by the National Discrimination and Racism Monitor (NaDiRa), 90% of participants acknowledge that racism is a problem in Germany, and 22% report experiencing racism firsthand. Official crime statistics also show that nearly two-thirds of politically motivated violent crimes recorded in 2022 were of a racist nature. The prevalence of these concerns not only affects individuals' daily lives but also negatively impacts the overall functioning and democratic values of society.

Across Europe, Islamophobia, anti-Semitism, and other hate speech are also on the rise, leading to increasing insecurity among Muslim and Jewish communities, as reported by Human Rights Watch. Unlike previous generations, the new generation, which is more open-minded on this issue, approaches racism with serious concern and expresses their support for each other on digital platforms. One of the most impactful events in this context was the support for the #BlackLivesMatter movement following the killing of Trayvon Martin, an African-American teenager, in the USA in 2013. Given these situations, a question arises: is it right to lean towards the far-right wing while wanting to protect their countries with the right policies? The decision will be seen along with the parties on June 9. New policies addressing these topics seem likely to emerge in the coming European days.

What are these policies?

One of the biggest commitments made ahead of the 2024 elections is the manifesto of the European Network Against Racism (ENAR). Before the election, ENAR published a manifesto titled "A Europe for Everyone: Roadmap to Change," calling on European political parties to commit to combating racism. This manifesto aims to place anti-discrimination and equality policies at the center of election campaigns. The European Commission, with its new project "European Action Plan Against Racism," presented a series of strategies and actions to combat racism and discrimination for 2020-2025. Depending on the support of current political parties for this action, significant sanctions against existing racism movements across Europe seem likely in the coming days.

Besides these topics, the level of trust that European voters have in European Commissions is also a significant issue as the elections approach. According to the pollingEurope survey results mentioned at the beginning of the news, only 49% of the public expressed confidence in voting in this year's elections. This figure is concerning for European member states, which have a reassuring structure in terms of justice compared to non-European countries. To change this perception, the public demands a more constructive response to their needs and a more transparent environment.

Considering all these dynamics, the 2024 European Parliament elections, with voters' increasing interest and strong views on policies, seem poised to play a significant role in shaping Europe's political future. Whether the election results will have a critical impact on determining the directions and policies of the European Union in the coming years remains a matter of curiosity. The direction Europe will take following the elections and how these elections will shape the EU's future will be among the most important agenda items in the coming days. Voters are preparing to determine Europe's future with their votes.